Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Opinion Polls – NDA likely to edge past magic figure of 272!

Story Highlights
  • BJP-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) will face close fight. Likely to reach the magical number
  • Congress-led UPA are likely to win 149 seats, 89 more seats than last time
  • Non-BJP & non-NDA wil scrape through with 115 seats

Desh kaa Maha Tyohar,  – Opinion Polls

Latest and probably the last opinion polls by Times Now and VMR has arrived just before the start of polling for Phase 1 of While some pre-poll surveys have pointed out that NDA might not be able to scrape through the magic figure of 272 and in that case the Third Front parties will turn out to be kingmakers. Looking at all possible permutations and combinations, it is anticipated that the results will be a nail-biting finish for all the parties involved.

But # have good news in store for Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with the survey predicting an increase of 89 seats to the 2014 tally. In other words, UPA will finish second with 149 seats to its tally. Though this will not help INC form government, yet the figure is definitely an improvement over the era of Modi wave in 2014. Non-BJP and Non-NDA parties will manage 115 seats and will definitely be a game changer.

It would be a clean sweep for NDA in 3 states namely Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. One of the biggest surprise thrown by opinion poll has been the state of Odisha.  As per predictions, BJP will get 12 seats against the BJD’s 8, a gain of 12 seats from last time.

Congress is favored in states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Chattisgarh.

BJP led NDA Congress-led UPA Others
Year 2014 336 60 147
Year 2019 279 149 115
Swing in terms of seat count -57 89 -32
% predicted Vote Shares 40.8% 30.7% 28.5%

The poll survey was conducted by Times Now and VMR in the month of March across 960 locations and 14,301 voters. Now let us have a look at what the poll survey talks about the 4 states of India that can alter the fortunes.

BJP led NDA Congress-led UPA SP-BSP-RLD Others
Vote Share 2019 45.1 11.01 37.7 6.12
Seat Share 2019 50 3 27 0

The powerful SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan is likely to secure 27 seats only, as per the opinion polls with vote share showing a decline by 5%. BJP will not face massive losses in Uttar Pradesh securing 50 out of 80 seats despite the raging Akhilesh-Mayawati-Ajit trio. The vote share for both NDA and UPA show a slight upswing this term in Uttar Pradesh which is definitely a good sign.

BJP-Shiv Sena Congress-NCP Others
Vote Share 2019 48.20% 36.90% 15.70%
Seat Share 2019 38 10 0

BJP Congress BSP Others
Vote Share 2019 49.1% 40.92% 4.25% 5.73%
Seat Share 2019 20 9 0 0

In Bihar, NDA will be winning big this time  29 out of 40 seats. In its neighboring state, Jharkhand both BJP and Congress will even out at 7-7. In West Bengal, BJP might secure 9 seats, positive 14.5% swing of votes and TMC getting 31 seats out of 42.

In the south India states, BJP will not be able to make much dent. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana – Non-BJP and non-Congress regional parties will win. YSR Congress bagging at least 20 seats in Andhra Pradesh. In the state of Telangana, it will be a win for K Chandrashekhar Rao-led TRS bagging 14 of the 17 seats.

The survey also talks about the rating given on the issues that the common mass is facing. A whopping 39% voted lack of employment as THE Issue of Election. But still, 53.4 % voters feel that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can steer the country in right direction.
The countdown to elections to biggest democracy has started. Let us hope and pray that the best man win!
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