- BJP-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) will face close fight. Likely to reach the magical number
- Congress-led UPA are likely to win 149 seats, 89 more seats than last time
- Non-BJP & non-NDA wil scrape through with 115 seats
Latest and probably the last opinion polls by Times Now and VMR has arrived just before the start of polling for Phase 1 of
#LokSabhaElections2019. The survey has predicted that BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to form government at the center by just managing to score 279 seats out of the 543 seats. While some pre-poll surveys have pointed out that NDA might not be able to scrape through the magic figure of 272 and in that case the Third Front parties will turn out to be kingmakers. Looking at all possible permutations and combinations, it is anticipated that the results will be a nail-biting finish for all the parties involved.
But #LokSabhaElections2019 have good news in store for Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with the survey predicting an increase of 89 seats to the 2014 tally. In other words, UPA will finish second with 149 seats to its tally. Though this will not help INC form government, yet the figure is definitely an improvement over the era of Modi wave in 2014. Non-BJP and Non-NDA parties will manage 115 seats and will definitely be a game changer.
It would be a clean sweep for NDA in 3 states namely Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. One of the biggest surprise thrown by opinion poll has been the state of Odisha. As per predictions, BJP will get 12 seats against the BJD’s 8, a gain of 12 seats from last time.
Congress is favored in states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Chattisgarh.
|Times Now -VMR, Pre-Poll Survey LokSabhaElections2019||BJP led NDA||Congress-led UPA||Others|
|Swing in terms of seat count||-57||89||-32|
|% predicted Vote Shares||40.8%||30.7%||28.5%|
The poll survey was conducted by Times Now and VMR in the month of March across 960 locations and 14,301 voters. Now let us have a look at what the poll survey talks about the 4 states of India that can alter the fortunes.
|UTTAR PRADESH, Pre-Poll Survey LokSabhaElections2019||BJP led NDA||Congress-led UPA||SP-BSP-RLD||Others|
|Vote Share 2019||45.1||11.01||37.7||6.12|
|Seat Share 2019||50||3||27||0|
UTTAR PRADESH – The powerful SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan is likely to secure 27 seats only, as per the opinion polls with vote share showing a decline by 5%. BJP will not face massive losses in Uttar Pradesh securing 50 out of 80 seats despite the raging Akhilesh-Mayawati-Ajit trio. The vote share for both NDA and UPA show a slight upswing this term in Uttar Pradesh which is definitely a good sign.
|Maharashtra, Pre-Poll Survey LokSabhaElections2019||BJP-Shiv Sena||Congress-NCP||Others|
|Vote Share 2019||48.20%||36.90%||15.70%|
|Seat Share 2019||38||10||0|
MAHARASHTRA – The alliance of BJP-Shiv Sena will outperform notching up 38 of the 48 seats (48.15%). Congress-NCP alliance will still gain if compared to the year 2014 by securing 10 seats
|MADHYA PRADESH, Pre-Poll Survey LokSabhaElections2019||BJP||Congress||BSP||Others|
|Vote Share 2019||49.1%||40.92%||4.25%||5.73%|
|Seat Share 2019||20||9||0||0|
MADHYA PRADESH – A big boost for NDA government in the Hindi heartland. These projections are surprising since BJP lost the last Assembly elections. Rajasthan also shows a similar trend with BJP projecting to win 18 out of 25 seats.
In Bihar, NDA will be winning big this time 29 out of 40 seats. In its neighboring state, Jharkhand both BJP and Congress will even out at 7-7. In West Bengal, BJP might secure 9 seats, positive 14.5% swing of votes and TMC getting 31 seats out of 42.
In the south India states, BJP will not be able to make much dent. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana – Non-BJP and non-Congress regional parties will win. YSR Congress bagging at least 20 seats in Andhra Pradesh. In the state of Telangana, it will be a win for K Chandrashekhar Rao-led TRS bagging 14 of the 17 seats.