11th December 2018, we are almost at the edge of 2018 and the year 2019 is about to start.
We all are aware of the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the result and surprising decisions that Narendra Modi have been constantly taking in his 5-year tenure. Now, 2019 is going to start and Lok Sabha elections will be taking place once again.
The 5-year term of Narendra Modi led Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) kicked off in the year 2014 is going to end. This obviously means opinion polls need to be conducted throughout the country to predict the Lok Sabha election results. Keeping this mind, few channels have conducted opinion poll 2019 for Lok Sabha Elections as well as National Assembly in five states.
BJP accounted for 31% of the total vote share in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. That means 69% of total registered voters voted against BJP. And there is no denying the fact that Modi’s popularity has only decreased since 2014.
In the month of September 2018, two main election polls were conducted. Last week, the opinion polls for these pre-election polls were released by TV channels. The two main opinion polls conducted were:
- 2019 Lok Sabha elections opinion poll if they were to be held today
- 2019 opinion poll for assembly elections in five states –
However, the results of Lok Sabha opinion poll 2019 came as no surprise to us. It clearly predicts the victory of Narendra Modi and NDA in the year 2019.
Although, the results of the
#ExitPolls second 2019 election opinion poll #PollOfExitPolls for assembly elections may be an alarm for BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party). It may be alarming as second polling result predict that they might lose three of the major states to other parties. The results show that three states- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan may slip off from NDA to UPA. This may be a disappointing news for Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi because they aimed at making India “Congress Mukt Bharat”.
As per the latest opinion poll 2019, another report was released as per the CVOTER Survey conducted by ABP News Channel. The results are:
- There total 200 seats in Rajasthan. Out of which, 57 are in favor of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), 120 in favor of Congress Party and rest belong to other parties.
- There are total 90 seats in Chhattisgarh. Out of which 33 are in favor of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), 54 in favor of Congress Part and remaining for others.
- There are total 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh. Out of which, 106 seats are in favor of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), 117 seats are in favor of Congress Party and remaining for other parties.
- It is being predicted that Congress may make a major comeback in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
Besides these results in three major states, Lok Sabha election 2019 opinion poll clearly predicts that citizens prefer Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) for Lok Sabha and considers Narendra Modi as their primary choice for the post of Prime Minister.
If you would compare the reports of the 2019 elections opinion poll results with that of 2014 opinion poll results then there is the decrease in preference of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in Lok Sabha. In spite of the difference in preference, the results remain unchanged because it is a slight decrease in the preference from 2014 to 2019.
If reports are to be believed, the Election Commission of India said that they don’t think there would be any problem in conducting Lok Sabha Elections with few State Assembly Elections. This will quite obviously lead to “one country one election” situation and it is too early for such a major change. So, it may happen in future but not now. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah had an idea of “one country one election”. This ideology was put forward by Modi-Shah but there have been speculations that they were not confident enough to hold Lok Sabha elections early.
As of now, the “one country one election” ideology has been dropped off but it would be interesting to see such a vast change. These won’t be linear elections as there will be five state assembly elections preceding the Lok Sabha Polls. Although, one country one election ideology was put forward by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi still Bhartiya Janta Party can not afford to take it easy. Also, this will lead to bigger challenges for the National Congress Party as it would require them to spread widely across these five states and gain maximum seats.
For Basic Knowledge, what is Opinion Poll?
Opinion Poll is a survey research carried out to understand the opinion of the population through a sample i.e. a series of questions and observations the responses, thereof.
What is the History of Opinion Polling?
The first-ever poll was conducted by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian. In the year 1824, the Local Straw poll was conducted in the United States for the contest of the Presidency. A magazine, The Literary Digest, conducted a national survey and results predicted the victory of many leaders correctly. Although, due to some biases, The Literary Digest was unable to predict the victory of few leaders and then this polling system took off its place.
As far as I can observe the result published by opinion poll 2019 predict that Narendra Modi-led NDA may be loosing onto some seats but on whole, they will still win 2019 elections. Modi-Shah needs to concentrate on retaining their seats in few states and cannot take this easily. Their though wile 2019 elections should remain same i.e. winning with the maximum number of seats. As per the survey, 45% chances are with Narendra Modi whereas 22% are with Rahul Gandhi as our Prime Minister. This clearly states that Bhartiya Janta Party still holds a good rapport and have high chances of winning 2019 Lok Sabha elections.