With West Bengal being the third largest state after Uttar Pradesh (80) and Maharashtra (48), in terms of sending MPs to Lok Sabha, the party securing a majority in
#LokSabhaElections2019 from the state will become crucial. Here is a question that most political observers are pondering on. Can BJP win a majority of 23 seats of the 42 seats in West Bengal as predicted by the BJP chief Amit Shah? Though some may think this is a very unrealistic claim by BJP, but there are sufficient reasons for the ruling party TMC to worry about since the opinion polls suggest that BJP is slowly gaining ground. There is a slow but steady rise of the BJP in Mamata Di dominated West Bengal!
TMC has had immense support from the people of West Bengal since its very inception. But there has been growing unrest as was evident in the results of the Panchayati elections. BJP turned out to be the second most popular party and with the aggressive campaigning, there is a strong possibility that BJP may enjoy even greater support during the upcoming elections.
Although the TMC led the Panchayati elections by a very wide margin it did lose a few seats to BJP and other parties, which if we consider the trend of budding alliances that BJP is forming, may turn out to be a major area of concern.
The Lotus party is playing its cards well and striking just the right chords in its campaign. Infiltration by the Bangladeshis in the border regions has been a sensitive issue for the people in West Bengal and BJP has promised that instead of Didi’s “appeasement politics” aggressive stance would be taken by the introduction of the National Register of Citizenship as was implemented in Assam. According to Shah the 2019 elections is not just for the seats at the Lok Sabha, but it is for the “existence of Bengal”.
Another important factor to consider is that in the upcoming elections West Bengal will have about 20.1 lakh first-time voters. These votes are precious to every party in the state. These will be of course the votes of fresher minds that have not yet set their favorites in the political game.
As per the opinion polls conducted by India TV-CNX and News Nation for
#LokSabhaElections2019, the results were promising for BJP in terms of increase in vote share but not enough for BJP to make a dent in the citadel of Mamata Banerjee. If we go by the opinion polls, Trinamool Congress is set to dominate again in #LokSabhaElections2019. TMC may win in the range of 27-33 seats, while BJP may get a share of 5-9 seats.
It is needless to say that TMC holds the reigns of the political scenario in West Bengal but again this has always been a very politically sensitive state. It has had a history of poll violence and there have already been numerous reports of violence between the TMC and BJP cadres across the state. BJP may definitely win few of the seats and establish a greater number of seats than earlier, but are they strong enough to win over TMC that broke the stronghold of Communist party that ruled the state for 34 long years? We will need to wait out and see as polling commences on April 11th.